Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.044364 0.050664 0.057593 0.065786 0.075222 0.085761 0.098445
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.034854 0.043469 0.053856 0.067343 0.084452 0.105512 0.133524
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.028840 0.038159 0.050114 0.066656 0.089080 0.118601 0.160714
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.025743 0.035749 0.049254 0.068947 0.097156 0.136440 0.195884
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.021982 0.031778 0.045575 0.066599 0.098148 0.144229 0.217555
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.019357 0.029001 0.043107 0.065469 0.100456 0.153807 0.242675
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.016852 0.026062 0.039991 0.062863 0.100015 0.158905 0.261137
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.015910 0.025376 0.040169 0.065312 0.107684 0.177466 0.303677
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.015073 0.024741 0.040320 0.067666 0.115374 0.196832 0.349998
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.014324 0.024155 0.040457 0.069960 0.123146 0.217126 0.400522
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.013186 0.022785 0.039122 0.069518 0.125978 0.228922 0.436780
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.012276 0.021712 0.038178 0.069641 0.129788 0.242832 0.478759
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.011354 0.020552 0.037005 0.069286 0.132800 0.255859 0.521383
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.010825 0.020058 0.036995 0.071134 0.140308 0.278568 0.587282
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.010016 0.018957 0.035736 0.070400 0.142546 0.290917 0.632797
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.009666 0.018700 0.036054 0.072828 0.151521 0.318219 0.715138
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.008798 0.017339 0.034082 0.070340 0.149805 0.322493 0.745513
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.008153 0.016369 0.032794 0.069143 0.150721 0.332573 0.790875
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.007416 0.015142 0.030874 0.066382 0.147840 0.333740 0.814729
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.007246 0.015081 0.031369 0.068976 0.157433 0.364820 0.917889
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.007073 0.014997 0.031803 0.071470 0.167077 0.397210 1.029425
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.006901 0.014897 0.032193 0.073902 0.176851 0.431136 1.150376
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.006511 0.014284 0.031389 0.073433 0.179443 0.447404 1.225436